|Demand Planning Newsletter Switch to PDF||September '09 /1st Fall edition|
Forecasting in SAP APO
Planning and Forecasting Tutorial –
REGISTER NOW ON DEMAND PLANNING.NET!
Whether you are new to demand forecasting, or a seasoned pro looking to enhance your knowledge, you cannot afford to miss this opportunity:
GET SKILLS YOU CAN USE AT WORK
You will learn to...
We will explain the modeling methodology and process behind accurate demand forecasts and how to effectively use promotional information to arrive at a consensus forecast. The focus will be on demand modeling using statistical techniques, the methodology to perform model diagnostics, forecast accuracy measurement and the process to incorporate market intelligence.
LEARN FROM INDUSTRY EXPERTS
Each training day will also include an industry-specific presentation from a senior supply chain manager:
Day 1- Demand Planning for Over the Counter Health Care Products
Day 2- Forecasting for fast moving fashion products
NETWORK WITH YOUR PEERS
You will have ample opportunity to meet, interact, and learn from other demand planning professionals with team challenges and networking exercises.
ADD TO YOUR CREDENTIALS
Upon completion of the tutorial, you will be awarded a certificate of completion from Demand Planning LLC, attesting to your newly-acquired skills in Demand Planning.
Upcoming Boston APICS and NESCON Events:
Sep 29, 2009 - Careers in Supply Chain Management - Panel Discussion
Oct 5, 2009 - NESCON: Supply Chain Innovation & Optimization
APO Demand Planning – usability versus functionality
I have heard from Consultants and business managers across many companies: Very rarely there is user adoption of standard APO forecasting techniques. Users typically use an off-line forecasting process and enter the forecast into the planning book or even upload it with IT help. Why is it?
Are the standard models and algorithms not sufficient for the business models? Or is it becuase the users and IT staff do not understand the statistics and functionality behind APO?
Let me address some possible reasons for this unfortunate situation.
The complexity and scale of the data and functionality actually drowns out the requirement for business process mapping and leveraging the functionality to meet the business needs. So the key ingredient of building the bridge between what the users want versus what the tool can do is perhaps left out in the cold – either due to the hectic project management schedules or due to the lack of understanding by IT staff/Integrators etc... Continue reading!
Popular software packages have forecast alert monitors. Each software may term it differently:
1. Manugistics calls them lists
An overworked demand planner typically plans in the order of 1000+ skus each month. That is where these alerts come in handy. You set a pre-determined alert based on the condition meeting a threshold……. Voila! As soon as the month-end job runs and re-creates the models, the alerts kick in and do their job.
You get a report, perhaps emailed to you at night comprised of all those items that exceeded your threshold. Then your job becomes a tad easier. You walk in to the office with your day planned out thinking to yourself:
“I am going to address those 45 SKUs that show a MAPE above 30% first, then address the next 100 that are above 20%”.
Typically the alerts are set using a comparison of new model values to the in-sample historical values. In essence, they address the model fit issue and alert you to specific situations where the models are insufficient or just plain wrong. Quite possibly, the history may have an anomaly as well... Continue reading!
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10 VP level speakers are confirmed to lead insightful new approaches to tackling your forecasting challenges!
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