Time Series models are simple yet powerful techniques available to develop supply chain forecasts. No where the cliché "History repeats itself" is more true than in sales forecasting.
In Time-series modeling, we just postulate that all we need is past values of the variable we are trying to forecast. So if we are trying to predict the demand for a specific product over the next six months, we use the monthly history of the product over the past two to three years. We just ignore other factors such as price elasticity, promotional sensitivity, macro-economic activity, or Governmental policy changes or our own corporate policy decisions that we may be aware of.
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