Demand Planning.Net: Are you Planning By Exception?
Demand Planning.Net
demand planning, forecasting, and exception management

Forecasting

The basic ingredient of any demand plan is a statistical forecast. Statistical models and resulting forecasts are the building blocks of the planning process.

Although consensus and collaboration are key ingredients of a successful demand management program, statistical forecasting is the first-step to create the baseline plan. To this end, a good process and software technologies become important. One of the key things you look for when you prepare a Request for Proposal (RFP) is to ensure that you cover all of the modeling algorithms and techniques which are relevant for your process. This depends on your industry and your specific business model.

Forecasting techniques can be broadly classified as:

  1. Time Series Forecasting models consisting of exponential smoothing, Holt-Winters Multiplicative Smoothing, ARIMA models and Box-Jenkins Models, Logarithmic regression models
  2. Promotional Planning Models that typically use event modeling methodologies and indicator variable models
  3. Causal models that include a variety of Multiple Linear Regression Models and transfer function models
  4. Probabilistic Models that often forecast the probability of a particular event happening in the future and these include Logit, Probit and Tobit models
  5. Croston's Models to forecast intermittent demand. Here is a link to a semi-technical explanation of Croston's Method

©2004-2017 by Demand Planning, LLC. All rights reserved. Privacy policy | Refund and Exchange policy | Terms of Service | FAQ
Demand Planning, LLC is based in Boston, MA | Phone: (781) 995-0685 | Email us!

Consulting

Diagnostic |  DP Design |  Exception Management |  S&OP |  Solutions

Training

Demand Planning |  S&OP |  Retail Forecasting |  Supply Chain Analysis:  » Value Chain Metrics  » Inventory Optimization |  Supply Chain Collaboration

Industry

CPG/FMCG |  Food and Beverage |  Retail |  Pharma |  High Tech |  Other

Knowledge Base

Planning:  » Budgeting » S&OP |  Metrics: » Demand Metrics » Inventory  » Customer Service |  Collaboration:  » VMI & CMI » Account Based Forecasting
Forecasting:  » Causal Modeling  » Market Modeling  » Ship to Share |  For Students