Demand Planning and Forecasting Tutorial

Sharpen your supply chain with accurate modeling and metrics!

May 6th and 7th, 2010 - 2 Day Interactive Training: Bring your laptops
Boston, MA

view and print seminar brochure (PDF)

In this specialized two-day course, we will explain the modeling methodology and process behind accurate demand forecasts and how to effectively use promotional information to arrive at a consensus forecast. The focus will be on demand modeling using statistical techniques, the methodology to perform model diagnostics, forecast accuracy measurement and the process to incorporate market intelligence.

If you are a new demand forecaster or looking to enhance your knowledge of business forecasting, you cannot afford to miss this opportunity!

Get skills you can use at work

We will explain and demonstrate best practices in model selection, illustrate how to use forecast error to improve model quality, and teach you how to reconcile top-down and bottom up forecasts.

Learn from industry experts

Each training day will also include an industry-specific presentation from a senior supply chain manager.

Network with peers

You will have ample opportunity to meet, interact, and learn from other demand planning professionals with team challenges and networking exercises.

Add to your credentials

Upon completion of the tutorial, you will be awarded a certificate of completion from Demand Planning LLC, attesting to your newly-acquired skills in Demand Planning and Forecasting.

Detailed Outline of the Workshop:

Day 1

8:30AM to 5:00PM

Day 2

8:30AM to 4:30PM

8:30AM Registration & Breakfast
9:00 AM Opening Address
9:15 AM Demand Planning Overview
- Definition of Demand
- Introduction to Demand Planning
- The Service - Cost - Balance Model
- Distinction between Forecasting and Demand Planning
- What to forecast - shipments vs. orders
- Forecast Horizon, Buckets & Periodicity
- Constrained vs. Unconstrained forecasts
- Demand Management
- Organization Structure and Culture
- Role of the Demand Forecaster
- Consensus and communication
10:45AM Coffee Break
11AM Data Analysis for forecasting
- Data Requirements for Demand Planning
- Graphical review of the Data
- Central Tendency and measures of Dispersion
- Outliers and Missing Data
- Structural Changes and Data Shifts
- What is a Forecast Model?
- Introduction to Demand Components
- Ex-Ante versus Ex-Post Forecasting
- Hold out Sample Methodology
- Optimal Model Selection
12:30PM Lunch Break
1:30pm Guest Speaker
TBD
2:30pm-3pm Coffee Break & Networking Exercise
3:00pm Modeling & Graphical Decomposition
- Decomposition of the Demand Profile
- Understanding the components - Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality
- Predictable and unpredictable volatility
- Stationarity and Stability
- Diagnostics review to improve model quality
- Modeling by Exception
4:30pm Assignment of Forecasting exercises to participants

8:30am Modeling
- Introduction to Forecast Modeling
- Qualities of a good Statistical Forecast
- Balancing between Model Fit vs. Robustness
- Time Series versus Multi-Variate Methods
- First Order Exponential Smoothing Models
- Holt Models to accommodate Trend
- Holt Winters Models
- How to set up a simple forecast model in Excel
- Additive vs. Multiplicative Seasonality in Models
- Baseline vs. event forecasting
- Introduction to Box-Jenkins Models
- Multiple Linear Regression Models
- Time and Seasonal Index in an Excel model
11:30PM Lunch Break
12:30pm Guest Speaker
TBD
2:30pm-2:45pm Coffee Break
2:45pm Measuring Forecast Performance
- Importance of measuring forecast performance
- Management Reporting and Continuous Improvement
- Measurement Methodology
- Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
- Mean Percentage Error (MPE)
- Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE or PMAD)
- Weighted Mean Percentage Error (WMAPE)
- Forecast Bias and Sku Mix Error (SME)
- Relationship between Bias and Error
4pm Discussion and answers to assigned exercises

Pricing

~~$1,045~~ Early bird pricing: $995 for registrations by Apr. 17, 2010. 10% discount for groups of 3 or more.

Consulting

Diagnostic | DP Design | Exception Management | S&OP | Solutions

Training

Demand Planning | S&OP | Retail Forecasting | Supply Chain Analysis: » Value Chain Metrics » Inventory Optimization | Supply Chain Collaboration

Industry

Knowledge Base

Planning: » Budgeting » S&OP | Metrics: » Demand Metrics » Inventory » Customer Service | Collaboration: » VMI & CMI » Account Based Forecasting
Forecasting: » Causal Modeling » Market Modeling » Ship to Share | For Students