Customer Demand Planning Workshop
Improve Forecasting with POS and Channel Inventory -
relevant for CPG, FMCG, Consumer Electronics, High-tech, Automotive,
and Food and Beverage
Oct 6th(Wed) and 7th(Thurs), 2010 - 2 Day
Interactive Workshop,
at the
Hyatt Place, Fair Lawn/Paramus, NJ
Register Now! - Just
$895 per attendee, before September 8th for our Super Early-bird
discount. Regular price $1045
view and print seminar brochure (PDF)
This workshop will explain the process to create a demand-driven
pull forecast that incorporates the effects of changes in market,
consumption patterns, and inventory cycles to model a supply chain
forecast. Customer based Demand Planning works by leveraging
customer sell-through and inventory data. Some times the
customer may also provide you their own forecasts through the CPFR
process.
We take on the challenges and work through the mechanics of
obtaining and using customer data and syndicated POS data from
sources like Nielsen's and IRI. If you are using Wal-Mart Retail
Link or Target Partners Online data, this will be a productive
workshop that helps you build the analytics to create the correct
forecasts.
You will learn to...
- Understand the unique characteristics of Demand Planning for
CPG
- Work the Mechanics of Forecast Modeling
- Leverage Time Series Models and Exponential smoothing
- Calculate Demand Metrics and perform Model Diagnostics
- Utilize retail data to increase the accuracy of your
forecasts
- Appreciate the Dynamics of Retail and channel inventory
- Derive the total supply chain forecast using Account Based
Forecasting
- Set up a consensus demand planning process
Who Should Attend?
- Demand Planners & Directors
- Forecast Analysts and Managers
- Director of Value Chain
- Analysts in the Supply Chain
- Inventory and Operations Planners
- Financial Analysts
- Director of Logistics
- Marketing Managers
- Product Managers
- Sales Managers
- Customer Business Managers
Detailed Outline of the Workshop:
Day 1
8:30AM to 5:00PM
|
Day 2
8:30AM to 5:00PM
|
- 7:30AM Registration & Breakfast
- 8:30 AM Welcome
-
9:00 AM Demand Planning Overview
- Definition of Demand Planning - What, Why and How?
- The Service - Cost - Balance Model
- Distinction between Business Forecasting and Demand
Planning
- What to forecast - shipments vs. orders
- Key Terminology - Forecast Horizon, Buckets &
Periodicity
- Constrained vs. Unconstrained forecasts
- Demand Management
- Organization Structure and Culture
- Role of the Demand Forecaster
- Consensus and communication
- 10:30AM Coffee Break
- 10:45AM Data Analysis for forecasting
- Data Requirements for POS based forecasting
- Graphical review of POS and Channel Inventory Data
- Outliers and Missing Data
- Structural Changes and Data Shifts
- Forecast Model
- Introduction to Demand Components
- Ex-Ante versus Ex-Post Forecasting
- Hold out Sample Methodology
- Optimal Model Selection
- 12:30PM Lunch Break
- 1:30 PM Demand Driven forecasting
- Push vs. Pull Methodology
- Modeling Customer Demand
- Retail Customer Segmentation - Analysis of your customer
Pareto
- Modeling the retail shelf take-away - The use of POS data
- 2:30PM Coffee Break & Networking Exercise
- 3:00 PM Demand Driven Forecasting Continuation
- Understanding your Distribution Channel Network
- Demand Volatility created by Channel inventory
- Changes in Retail Inventory Policies
- Calculation of the total supply chain forecast
- Challenges in setting up the process - Data mapping.
calendar conversations
- 4:30 PM Assignment of Forecasting Exercises to
Participants
|
-
7:30 AM Breakfast
-
8:30am Forecast Modeling for POS DATA
- Smooth patterns in the POS data
- Effect of Marketing and Sales Promotions
- Data Anomalies - Shifts, Outliers & POS Converge
- Statistical Modeling
- Model Diagnostics using Demand Metrics
- MAPE vs. Root Mean Squared Error
- Ex-post Forecasting
- Modeling Level, Trend and Seasonality
- Exponential Smoothing Models
- Promotional Planning using Intervention Models
- Baseline Forecast and Lift for Promotional events
- Change in the Promotional Calendar
- Phase-in and Phase- out Modeling
- 10:30PM Morning Break
- 10:45 PM Modeling (cont'd)
- Baseline vs. event forecasting
- Introduction to Box-Jerkins Models
- Multiple Linear Regression Models
- Time and Seasonal Index in and Excel based model
- 12:00 PM Lunch Break
- 1:00 PM POS to Order Forecast
- Challenges in converting the POS forecast to shipment
forecast
- Special situations that affect the conversion
- Numerical examples to illustrate
- Bulky Shipments as displays
- Channel Load-ins
- Increased Distribution at Retail
- Retail Promotions
- 2:45 PM Coffee Break
- 3:00 PM Measuring Forecast Performance
- Definition of Demand Forecast Errors
- Errors over time vs. Errors Across Production
- Calculation Methodology for Model Diagnostics
- Mechanics behind MAD, MPE, MAPE, and RMSE
- How to identify a biased Forecast
- Importance of measuring forecast performance
- Management Reporting and Continuous Improvement
- Measurement Methodology
- Mean Percentage Error (MPE)
- Mean Absolution Percentage Error (MAPE or PMAD)
- Weighted Mean Percentage Error (WMAPE)
- Forecast Bias and SKU Mix Error (SME)
- Relationship between Bias and Error
- 4:45 PM Discussion and answers to assigned exercises
|
Register Now!
Pricing
$895 10% discount for groups of 2 or more. For special Hotel rates,
please call the office at (781) 995-0685.