Demand Planning.Net: Are you Planning By Exception?
Demand Planning.Net
demand planning, forecasting, and exception management

Demand Planning and Sales Forecasting Workshop - Chicago -IL

Improve Forecasting with better Models and Diagnostics!

Chicago, IL
Date: Oct 11 - 12 , 2017;


Location : Chicago Marriott O'Hare


 

View and print seminar brochure (PDF)

Register Now at Early Bird Price of $995 $895

Combo Packages Available

i.   2 day DP + 1 Day APO   $1695 $1595   – Details

ii. 2 day DP + CADP Exam   $1595 $1395  – Details

In this specialized two-day course, we will explain the modeling methodology and process behind accurate demand forecasts and how to effectively use promotional information to arrive at a consensus forecast. The focus will be on demand modeling using statistical techniques, the methodology to perform model diagnostics, forecast accuracy measurement and the process to incorporate market intelligence.

If you are a new demand planner looking to enhance your knowledge of business forecasting, you cannot afford to miss this opportunity!

 
Get skills you can use at work

We will explain and demonstrate best practices in model selection, illustrate how to improve model quality, and teach you how to leverage forecast measurement process.

 
Learn from industry experience

We will bring practical examples from our consulting experience in Sales Forecasting and Business Forecasting

 
Network with peers

You will have the opportunity to meet, interact, and learn from other demand planning professionals with team challenges and networking exercises.

 
Add to your credentials - This is a pre-requisite for our Certification

Upon completion, you will be awarded a certificate of completion from Demand Planning LLC, attesting to your newly-acquired skills in Demand Planning and Forecasting.  

Detailed Outline of the Workshop:

Day 1

8:30AM to 5:00PM

Day 2

8:30AM to 4:30PM

  • 8:00 AM Registration & Breakfast
  • 8:30 AM Welcome
  • 9:00 AM Demand Planning Overview
    • Why Forecast and Plan?
    • The Service – Cost – Balance Model
    • Introduction to Demand Planning- What, Why and How?
    • Distinction between Business Forecasting and Demand Planning
    • Beyond Statistical Forecasting
    • Key Components of a Demand Plan
    • Key Terminology – Forecast Horizon, Buckets & Periodicity
    • Forecast Pass
    • Constrained vs. Unconstrained forecasts
    • Demand Management
  • 10:30 AM Coffee Break
  • 10:45 AM Data Cleaning and Adjustments for Demand Forecasting
    • What do we know about data?
    • The Forecast Problem and Data collection
    • Definition of Demand
       - Shipment Vs. Orders
       - Gross Demand Vs. Net Demand
    • Data cleaning challenges
    • Adjusting for historical shifts in demand
    • Data filtering
    • Outliers
    • Process to Identify Outliers
    • What is a tolerance band
    • Methodology for outlier correction
  • 12:30 PM Lunch Break
  • 1:30 PM Statistical Modeling
    • Forecast Model
    • Key components of demand
    • Additive Vs. Multiplicative Seasonality in Models
    • Modeling by decomposition
    • Introduction to Forecast Modeling
    • Qualities of a good statistical forecast
    • Balancing between Model Fit Vs. Model Robustness
    • Uni-Variate Time Series vs. Multi-Variate methods
    • Moving Average
    • First Order Exponential Smoothing or Constant Models
    • Holt Models to accommodate trend
    • Holt Winters Model
    • Exponential Trend and Dampening
  • 2:30 PM Coffee Break & Networking Exercise
  • 4:00 PM Product Life Cycle & Long-term Planning
    • Cyclicality
    • Product Lifecycle and trend
    • Launch Forecasting
    • Volume effect on line extension
  • 4:30 PM Assignment of Forecasting exercises to participants
  • 8:30 AM Data Analysis and SKU Segmentation
    • Simple Model of Demand
    • Demand Volatility
    • What is the approach to Data Analysis?
    • Impact of Data Volatility on Forecasting
    • Measuring Volatility
    • Impact of multiple Extreme Observations on Volatility
    • SKU Segmentation for forecast modeling
    • Volume Volatility a 2x2 grid
    • Modeling by exception
  • 9:45 AM Forecast Errors and Model Diagnostic
    • Definition of Demand Forecast Errors
    • Forecast Accuracy
    • Forecast Bias vs. Forecast Error
    • Error and Volatility Reduction
    • Errors across SKUs vs. Errors across time
    • Model Diagnostics - Measuring Errors over time
       - MAD
       - MAPE vs. MPE
       - WAPE
       - Root Mean Squared Error
       - General Illustration MPE, MAPE and RMSE
  • 11:00 AM Morning Break
  • 11:15 AM Event Modeling
    • Event Modeling
    • Baseline vs. Incremental
    • Event Models Identify Volume Spikes
    • Illustration of Event Models
  • 12:30 PM Lunch Break
  • 1:30 PM Discussion and answers assigned exercises
  • 2:30 PM Planning for Intermittent Demand
    • What is Intermittent Demand?
    • Illustration of Intermittent Demand Data
    • What causes intermittency?
    • Strategies to handle intermittent demand
      • Business Perspective
      • Stat Models
    • Statistical Models for Intermittent Demand
      • Application of Croston's Model
      • Discrete Distribution
  • 3:30 PM Measuring forecast performance
    • Forecast Performance Metric
    • Forecast errors and actionablity
    • Sources of Forecast Error
    • Definition of Demand Planning Metrics - WAPE & Bias
    • Types of Bias
    • SKU Mix Error
    • Error Analysis for Continuous Improvement
    • Forecast Accuracy Reporting

Register Now!

Pricing

An additional 10% discount applies to group registrations of three or more using one payment method.

Please note that we reserve the right to deny admission/attendance based on competitiveness.

©2004-2017 by Demand Planning, LLC. All rights reserved. Privacy policy | Refund and Exchange policy | Terms of Service | FAQ
Demand Planning, LLC is based in Boston, MA | Phone: (781) 995-0685 | Email us!

Consulting

Diagnostic |  DP Design |  Exception Management |  S&OP |  Solutions

Training

Demand Planning |  S&OP |  Retail Forecasting |  Supply Chain Analysis:  » Value Chain Metrics  » Inventory Optimization |  Supply Chain Collaboration

Industry

CPG/FMCG |  Food and Beverage |  Retail |  Pharma |  High Tech |  Other

Knowledge Base

Planning:  » Budgeting » S&OP |  Metrics: » Demand Metrics » Inventory  » Customer Service |  Collaboration:  » VMI & CMI » Account Based Forecasting
Forecasting:  » Causal Modeling  » Market Modeling  » Ship to Share |  For Students