Demand Planning and Forecasting Workshop - Dallas, TX

Improve Forecasting with better Models and Diagnostics!

Feb 27 (Wed) & 28 (Thur), 2013 - 2 Day Interactive Workshop in Dallas, TX at
The Double Tree Dallas-Campbell Center

view and print seminar brochure (PDF)

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In this specialized two-day course, we will explain the modeling methodology and process behind accurate demand forecasts and how to effectively use promotional information to arrive at a consensus forecast. The focus will be on demand modeling using statistical techniques, the methodology to perform model diagnostics, forecast accuracy measurement and the process to incorporate market intelligence.

If you are a new demand planner looking to enhance your knowledge of business forecasting, you cannot afford to miss this opportunity!

Get skills you can use at work

We will explain and demonstrate best practices in model selection, illustrate how to improve model quality, and teach you how to leverage forecast measurement process.

Learn from industry experience

We will bring practical examples from our consulting experience

Network with peers

You will have the opportunity to meet, interact, and learn from other demand planning professionals with team challenges and networking exercises.

Add to your credentials - This is a pre-requisite for our Certification

Upon completion, you will be awarded a certificate of completion from Demand Planning LLC, attesting to your newly-acquired skills in Demand Planning and Forecasting.

Detailed Outline of the Workshop:

Day 1

8:30AM to 5:00PM

Day 2

8:30AM to 4:30PM

8:30 to 10:00am Why SIOP – Round Table Discussion
8:30 AM Welcome
9:00 AM Demand Planning Overview
- Why Forecast and Plan?
- The Service – Cost – Balance Model
- Introduction to Demand Planning- What, Why and How?
- Distinction between Business Forecasting and Demand Planning
- Beyond Statistical Forecasting
- Key Components of a Demand Plan
- Key Terminology – Forecast Horizon, Buckets & Periodicity
- Constrained vs. Unconstrained forecasts
- Constrained vs. Unconstrained forecasts
10:30 AM Coffee Break
10:45 AM Data Cleaning and Adjustments for Demand Forecasting
- What do we know about data?
- The Forecast Problem and Data collection
- What is Demand – shipments vs. orders
- Gross Demand vs. Net Demand
- Data cleaning challenges
- Data cleaning challenges
- Data filtering
- Outliers
- Process to Identify Outliers
- Methodology for outlier correction
12:30 PM Lunch Break
1:30 PM Data Analysis and SKU Segmentation
- Simple Model of Demand
- Demand Volatility
- What is the approach to data analysis?
- Impact of Data volatility on Forecasting
- Measuring volatility
- Impact of multiple Extreme Observations on Volatility
- SKU Segmentation for Forecast Modeling
- Volume Volatility a 2x2 Grid
- Modeling by Exception
2:30M Coffee Break & Networking Exercise
3:00 PM Demand components & Graphical Decomposition

Predictable and Unpredictable Volatility
Illustration of Demand components
Key Components of Demand
Understanding the components

Trend
Seasonality
Cyclicality

Graphical Decomposition

4:30 PM Assignment of Forecasting exercises to participants

8:30 AM Forecast Errors and Model Diagnostic
- Definition of Demand Forecast Errors
- Errors Over Time vs. Error Across Products
- Model Errors defined
- Definition of MPE, MAPE, WAPE and RMSE
- Model Diagnostics through Forecast Error
9:30 AM Modeling by Decomposition