CPG Demand Planning and Forecasting: Web Workshop

Presented by:
Mark Chockalingam, Ph. D. and Joan Kopp

Next Session:TBD

Overview

Consumer Packaged Goods companies are faced with a changing retail landscape dominated by a few large retailers and higher uncertainty from consumer preferences and retail promotional policies. Just a few of your customers can exert a great influence on your planning, logistics and execution processes. However, the large retail customers have also created the infrastructure and the technology that provides consumer and retail shelf take-away data, as well as enhanced visibility into the inventory positions at both store and warehouse. The key is for the CPG companies to leverage both consumption data and inventory data to create accurate demand plans.

This workshop will also explain the process to create a demand-driven pull forecast that incorporates the effects of changes in market, consumption patterns, and inventory cycles to model a supply chain forecast.

We take on the challenges and work through the mechanics of obtaining and using retailer data and syndicated POS data from sources like Nielsen�€™s and IRI. If you are using Wal-Mart Retail Link or Target Partners Online data, this will be a productive workshop that helps you build the analytics to create the correct forecasts.

You will learn to...

Understand the unique characteristics of Demand Planning for CPG
Work the Mechanics of Forecast Modeling
Leverage Time Series Models and Exponential smoothing
Calculate Demand Metrics and perform Model Diagnostics
Utilize retail data to increase the accuracy of your forecasts
Appreciate the Dynamics of Retail and channel inventory
Derive the total supply chain forecast using Account Based Forecasting
Set up a consensus demand planning process

Who Should Attend?

Demand Planners & Directors
Forecast Analysts and Managers
Director of Value Chain
Analysts in the Supply Chain
Inventory and Operations Planners
Financial Analysts
Director of Logistics
Marketing Managers
Product Managers
Sales Managers
Customer Business Managers

Detailed Outline of the Workshop:

Module 1: Jan 20 and 25, 2010

Demand Forecasting Basics
- Key Terminology & Concepts
- Demand Planning for CPG companies
  - Forecasting in the S&OP process
  - Role of the Demand Planner
  - Shipment forecasting vs Customer Planning
  - Key challenges of CPG Demand Planning
Demand Driven Forecasting
- Push versus Pull Methodology
- Modeling Customer Demand
- Retail Customer Segmentation �€“ Analysis of your customer Pareto
- Modeling the retail shelf take-away �€“ The use of POS data
- Understanding your Distribution Channel Network
- Demand Volatility created by Channel inventory
- Changes in Retail Inventory Policies
- Calculation of the total supply chain forecast
- Challenges in setting up the Process �€“ Data Mapping, Calendar Conversions
Case Study: Creating a Customer POS forecast and arriving at a supply chain plan for Jhumpa Juice Products

Module 2: Jan 22 and 26, 2010

Forecast Modeling of POS Data
- Smooth patterns in the POS data
- Effect of Marketing and Sales Promotions
- Data Anomalies, Data Shifts, Outliers & POS Coverage
- Statistical Modeling
- Model Diagnostics using Demand Metrics
- MAPE versus Root Mean Squared Error
- Ex-post Forecasting
- Modeling Level, Trend and Seasonality
- Exponential Smoothing Models
- Promotional Planning using Intervention Models
- Baseline Forecast and Lift for Promotional events
- Change in the Promotional Calendar
- Phase-in and Phase-out Modeling
Discussion of the Case Study: Set up the forecasting process for retail data
Q&A Session

Price $199 USD per module*

$379 if registering for both modules

*Price per person. Groups of 3 or more can be registered with a 10% discount.

Consulting

Diagnostic | DP Design | Exception Management | S&OP | Solutions

Training

Demand Planning | S&OP | Retail Forecasting | Supply Chain Analysis: » Value Chain Metrics » Inventory Optimization | Supply Chain Collaboration

Industry

Knowledge Base

Planning: » Budgeting » S&OP | Metrics: » Demand Metrics » Inventory » Customer Service | Collaboration: » VMI & CMI » Account Based Forecasting
Forecasting: » Causal Modeling » Market Modeling » Ship to Share | For Students