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DemandPlanning.Net Consulting includes Demand Diagnostics Demand Modeling Metrics Design Supply Chain Process Development Forecasting Systems implementation
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Is CPFR dead? Are there simple and cost effective methods for supply chains to collaborate? Is your demand affected by advertising and promotions? Do your models capture the impact of ad spending and other causal factors such as competitive price actions, interest rate increases and changing trend and fashions in the market place? The Many forecasting tools provide automatic modeling methodologies using basic time series models such as exponential smoothing and ordinary linear regressions. However such simple models assume history repeat itself even in the face of changing market conditions.
You either need to
make a subjective adjustments for the impact
of causal drivers or come up with more
rigorous statistical methodologies to
exploit the information from causal events.
There are a variety of advanced techniques
available to automate the generation of
causal events and using the causal's as
explanatory variables in the models.
These include multiple linear regression
models, transfer function models, vector
auto regressions and state space models
etc., The key is finding the right
methodology for your business process and
intelligently evaluate software for such
capabilities. It may not be unusual to
custom built such capabilities.
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