From ForecastingBlog.com: "Business Forecasting When... Trend Is not Your Friend"
by Mark Chockalingam, Ph.D.

In the demand forecasting tutorial in New Jersey, there was a key question on forecasting during a recession. Forecasting is relatively easier in a boom. As they say the Trend is your friend! But not so during a recession, since we don’t want the trend to be persistent ==> this would result in a worsening economic situation.

We want an inflection point for the drop to stabilize and then we expect a bottoming up and a pick up so we are back on positive trend. However, turning points are difficult to forecast. There was a lot of talk about the V shaped recovery and its challenges for demand planning. The drop was sudden and the demand fell off a cliff. Then the pick up was sudden as well.

Companies had substantial drop in their demand earlier this year but the consequent inventory depletion and the sudden pick up in demand had resulted in businesses scrambling to ramp up production....

Continue reading on ForecastingBlog.com!

New schedule announced for the Demand Forecasting 2-day Tutorial!
May 6th and 7th, 2010
Boston, MA

Our popular Demand Planning and Forecasting Tutorial is back!

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In this specialized two-day course, we will explain the modeling methodology and process behind accurate demand forecasts and how to effectively use promotional information to arrive at a consensus forecast. The focus will be on demand modeling using statistical techniques, the methodology to perform model diagnostics, forecast accuracy measurement and the process to incorporate market intelligence.

If you are a new demand forecaster or looking to enhance your knowledge of business forecasting, you cannot afford to miss this opportunity!

Get skills you can use at work
We will explain and demonstrate best practices in model selection, illustrate how to use forecast error to improve model quality, and teach you how to reconcile top-down and bottom up forecasts.

Learn from industry experts
Each training day will also include an industry-specific presentation from a senior supply chain manager, one each from HealthCare and Fast Moving fashion products.

Network with peers
You will have ample opportunity to meet, interact, and learn from other demand planning professionals with team challenges and networking exercises.

Add to your credentials
Upon completion of the tutorial, you will be awarded a certificate of completion from Demand Planning LLC, attesting to your newly-acquired skills in Demand Planning and Forecasting.

Register now, and take advantage of early bird pricing!