Demand Planning.Net: Are you Planning By Exception?
Demand Planning.Net
demand planning, forecasting, and exception management

Demand Planning and Forecasting for CPG Training Seminar - Sep 11th, 2009 in Las Vegas, NV

- presented by Mark Chockalingam, Ph. D., Managing Principal, DemandPlanning.Net

Date Time Venue view and print a workshop brochure (PDF)
Sep 11th, 2009 8:30AM - 5PM The Palms Hotel,
Las Vegas, NV
Price - $499 $449 USD* Register Now!


* Price per person, if registered and paid before July 10th 2009.

Overview

Consumer Packaged Goods companies are faced with a changing retail landscape dominated by a few large retailers and higher uncertainty from consumer preferences and retail promotional policies. Just a few of your customers can exert a great influence on your planning, logistics and execution processes. However, the large retail customers have also created the infrastructure and the technology that provides consumer and retail shelf take-away data plus enhanced visibility into the inventory positions at both store as well as warehouse. The key is for the CPG companies to leverage both consumption data and inventory data to create accurate demand plans.

Companies seeking forecasting accuracy improvement are faced with a number of issues such as:
• Data availability (especially Point Of Sale or channel data) and accuracy
• Lack of internal demand communication to enhance accuracy
• Inappropriate processes and tools for promotional forecasting
• Frequent, unexpected events effecting planners’ assumptions and models

In this Tutorial workshop, we will illustrate the methodology to address challenges specific to
CPG Demand Planning:
1. How can customer inventory and POS data be leveraged into creating accurate customer
demand plans?
2. How are the principles of Account Based Forecasting (ABF) used to create the total supply chain forecast for manufacturing?
3. Why is event modeling important for CPG companies, and how should the impact of promotional events be captured in your forecast models?

This workshop will also explain the process to create a demand-driven pull forecast that incorporates the effects of changes in market, consumption patterns, and inventory cycles to model a supply chain forecast.

We take on the challenges and work through the mechanics of obtaining and using retailer data and syndicated POS data from sources like Nielsen’s and IRI. If you are using Wal-Mart Retail Link or Target Partners Online data, this will be a productive workshop that helps you build the analytics to create the
correct forecasts.

You will learn to…
- Understand the unique characteristics of Demand Planning for CPG
- Work the Mechanics of Forecast Modeling
- Leverage Time Series Models and Exponential smoothing
- Formulate accurate baseline models
- Calculate Demand Metrics and perform Model Diagnostics
- Utilize retail data to increase the accuracy of your forecasts
- Appreciate the Dynamics of Retail and channel inventory
- Derive the total supply chain forecast using Account Based Forecasting
- Set up a consensus demand planning process

Who Should Attend?
  • Demand Planners & Directors
  • Forecast Analysts and Managers
  • Director of Value Chain
  • Analysts in the Supply Chain
  • Inventory and Operations Planners
  • Financial Analysts
  • Director of Logistics
  • Marketing Managers
  • Product Managers
  • Sales Managers
  • Customer Business Managers


Agenda

Demand Plannning for CPG - Overview
8:30 - 9:30
a. Demand Forecasting Basics
b. Key Terminology & Concepts
c. Demand Planning for CPG companies
- Forecasting in the S&OP process
- Role of the Demand Planner
- Shipment forecasting vs Customer Planning
- Key challenges of CPG Demand Planning

Demand Driven Forecasting
9:30 – 11:45
a. Push versus Pull Methodology
b. Modeling Customer Demand
c. Retail Customer Segmentation –
Analysis of your customer Pareto
d. Modeling the retail shelf take-away –
The use of POS data
e. Understanding your Distribution Channel Network
f. Demand Volatility created by Channel inventory
g. Changes in Retail Inventory Policies
h. Calculation of the total supply chain forecast
i. Challenges in setting up the Process –
Data Mapping, Calendar Conversions

Case Study: Creating a Customer POS
forecast and arriving at a supply chain
plan for Jhumpa Juice – Products
11:45 - 12:00

Lunch
12:00 - 1:00

Forecast Modeling of POS Data
1:00 - 3:00
a. Smooth patterns in the POS data
b. Effect of Marketing and Sales Promotions
c. Data Anomalies – Shifts, Outliers & POS Coverage
d. Statistical Modeling
e. Model Diagnostics using Demand Metrics
f. MAPE versus Root Mean Squared Error
g. Ex-post Forecasting
h. Modeling Level, Trend and Seasonality
i. Exponential Smoothing Models
j. Promotional Planning using Intervention Models
k. Baseline Forecast and Lift for Promotional events
l. Change in the Promotional Calendar
m. Phase-in and Phase-out Modeling

Discussion of the Case Study to set up
the forecasting process for retail data
3:00 - 5:00


Price -$499 $449 USD*
* Price per person, if registered and paid before July 10th 2009.      

 

Register Now!

 

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